TABNAK– Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says Hamas has never been story of any one individual.
“A ceasefire in Gaza may have also become more possible because without Sinwar there may be some added flexibility in negotiations on the Hamas side,” Pillar told Tabnak News Agency.
Following is the full text of the interview.
Q: Israel announced that it had killed the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in an operation. What effect does his death have on the future of Hamas? Does Hamas rely on individuals?
A: Hamas has never been a story of any one individual. Previous senior leaders have been killed before without killing the organization. What Sinwar was personally most identified with was the October 7th attack on Israel. Given the extremely destructive Israeli response, Sinwar's support was going to fade anyway, among members of Hamas and certainly among Palestinians generally.
Thus, he probably was not going to be a dominant part of Hamas's future whether he was killed or not. Hamas will continue to be the principal Gaza-based resistance to Israeli control, under whatever new leaders happen to emerge.
Q: After Sinwar was killed, Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the mission will continue. Meanwhile, Biden has announced that he will talk to Netanyahu so that the issue of the exchange of prisoners and the ceasefire in Gaza will be on the agenda. Will Netanyahu attend?
A: Biden and Netanyahu will talk on the telephone, but the pattern has been that Netenyahu pays little attention to Biden's advice. This will continue as long as the United States keeps supplying arms and diplomatic assistance to Israel.
Q: Kamala Harris also announced that with the death of Sinwar, it is time for a ceasefire. The families of Israeli prisoners also want to exchange prisoners. It seems that the issue of Sinwar's death has increased the pressure on Netanyahu to stop the Gaza war. What do you think?
A: The death of Sinwar does give a strong argument to those urging Netanyahu to stop the war and agree to a ceasefire and prisoner exchange. People will ask the prime minister: If this is not an appropriate stopping place, after more than a year of war, then what is? How many more Palestinians need to be killed before you come to another stopping place? The situation is more complicated than it was a couple of months ago, however, given Israel's full-scale assault in Lebanon.
A ceasefire in Gaza may have also become more possible because without Sinwar there may be some added flexibility in negotiations on the Hamas side. There have been reports that Sinwar in recent months had adopted a fatalistic attitude, believing he was bound to be killed at some point anyway, which may have made him more resistant to concessions.
Q: How will the killing of Sinwar affect the US presidential election? Will it improve the position of the Democrats?
A: If a ceasefire results, this would tend to help the Democrats. Without a ceasefire, there will be little or no effect on the election.
